Barring an upset in Saturday’s ACC championship game between Clemson and SMU, Alabama might be headed back to the College Football Playoff for the ninth time in the past 11 seasons.
The Crimson Tide were ranked No. 11 in the CFP selection committee’s penultimate rankings on Tuesday, one spot ahead of Miami. The Tide lost three times under first-year coach Kalen DeBoer, including an unsightly 24-3 loss at Oklahoma on Nov. 23.
The Hurricanes suffered their second defeat of the season on Saturday, 42-38 at Syracuse. Miami would be the first team left out of the 12-team playoff based on the current rankings because the fifth-highest rated conference champion would jump it.
“What it came down to, is we evaluated both teams, we think highly of both,” Warde Manuel, the committee chair, said of Miami and Alabama on the rankings release show on ESPN. “Both have had some losses that were not what they wanted. But in the last three games, Miami has lost twice. … and we feel that Alabama has got the edge over Miami.”
Since neither Alabama or Miami qualified for their respective conference championship games, it would seem the Hurricanes would have a difficult time jumping the Crimson Tide in the final rankings, which will be released by the selection committee on Sunday.
“Those who are not playing (on championship weekend), we will not adjust those teams,” Manuel said. “Because they won’t have another data point, obviously.”
Undefeated Oregon remained No. 1 in the selection committee’s rankings, followed by Texas, Penn State, Notre Dame and Georgia.
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Ohio State, which was on the wrong end of a stunning 13-10 loss to Michigan at home on Saturday, fell four spots to No. 6. Tennessee, SMU, Indiana and Boise State rounded out the top 10.
After Alabama and Miami, Ole Miss was No. 13 and South Carolina was No. 14.
Based on the current rankings, the top four conference champions that would receive first-round byes in the 12-team bracket are Oregon, Texas, SMU and Boise State.
If Boise State loses to UNLV in Friday’s Mountain West Conference championship, the winner of Saturday’s Big 12 championship game between No. 15 Arizona State and No. 16 Iowa State would probably be the fourth-highest rated conference champion.
The first-round matchups, based on the current rankings, would look like this: No. 12 Arizona State at No. 5 Penn State; No. 11 Alabama at No. 6 Notre Dame; No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Georgia, and No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State.
“It could change, it all depends on the outcome of these (conference championship) games,” Manuel said. “As we have said, we have high regard for those who are playing in those conference championships.”
Miami coach Mario Cristobal had argued this week that the Hurricanes (10-2) were deserving because they’d lost fewer games than other teams under consideration for one of the final at-large bids.
“We won 10 games this year and not many teams have,” Cristobal said Tuesday in his weekly appearance on WQAM, the Hurricanes’ flagship station. “And in our losses, those losses came down to one possession. That’s a very different résumé than the 9-3 teams’.
“The awards should go to the teams that are actually winning the games, not the ones that are politicking themselves out of losses,” Cristobal said.
The Hurricanes lost two of their last three games-they also fell 28-23 at Georgia Tech on Nov. 9 – and they didn’t beat a team that is currently ranked by the CFP.
Along with losing at Oklahoma, the Crimson Tide fell 40-35 at Vanderbilt and 24-17 at Tennessee. Alabama did defeat three teams ranked by the CFP this week: Georgia, South Carolina and Missouri.
“We’re one of the twelve best teams the way we see it,” DeBoer said on the Pat McAfee Show on Tuesday.
The committee ranked the Crimson Tide higher than two other SEC teams with three losses: Ole Miss and South Carolina, which has won six games in a row.
Alabama might be completely out of the woods, however, if Clemson beats SMU in Saturday’s ACC championship game. If the Tigers were to secure the ACC’s automatic bid, the selection committee would have to decide whether to include the 11-2 or 9-3 Crimson Tide.
Iowa State was No. 16 in the CFP rankings, followed by Clemson, BYU, Missouri and UNLV. Illinois, Syracuse, Colorado, Army and Memphis closed the top 25.
Army returned to the rankings, while Syracuse and Memphis are ranked for the first time this season. Tulane, Texas A&M and Kansas State fell out after losing last week.
The four first-round games will be played at the home campus of the higher-seeded teams on Dec. 20 and 21. The four quarterfinal games will be staged at the VRBO Fiesta Bowl, Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, Rose Bowl presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
The two semifinal games will take place at the Capital One Orange Bowl and Goodyear Cotton Bowl on Jan. 9 and 10.
The CFP National Championship presented by AT&T is scheduled for Jan. 20 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
