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USD / CAD – Canadian Dollar survives the Fed


– Fed sticks to its plan.

– Bank of Japan intervenes again.

– USD consolidating yesterday’s post-FOMC losses.

USDCAD: open 1.3718, overnight range 1.3705-1.3743, close 1.3740, WTI $79.69, Gold, $2301.85

The Canadian dollar sank then soared in the wake of the FOMC decision and then consolidated its gains overnight.

The Fed surprised no one when they left interest rates unchanged at 5.25-5.50% yesterday, but traders expecting a hawkish tilt to its interest rate outlook were sorely disappointed.

The statement acknowledged that the pace of inflation declines stalled, but anyone looking at the recent CPI, PCE Price index, and ISM prices paid knew that. Those same people also believed the Fed when policymakers claimed that future rate decisions would be “data-dependent.” If that statement was true, the Fed should have hiked rates. That explains why stocks had dropped and the US dollar had surged heading into the meeting.

Bond traders reacted when the statement said that the Fed said it would slow down the pace that it reduces its securities holdings by cutting the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $60 billion to $25 billion starting in June. The US 10-year Treasury yield plunged from a pre-meeting peak of 4.69% to 4.60% this morning.

Canadian dollar traders mostly ignored Governor Tiff Macklem’s testimony to the Senate Standing Committee on Banking, Commerce, and the Economy. He didn’t offer anything new but reiterated that, “Our key indicators of inflation have all moved in the right direction, and recent data point to a pickup in economic growth. The expectation is for inflation to continue trending towards the Bank’s 2% target within the year.”

EURUSD traded in a 1.0696-1.0728 range overnight and is just above the low in early NY trading. Prices got a bit of support after Powell reiterated that he thought rates would be cut in 2024.

GBPUSD is drifting in a 1.2508-1.2545 band. Gains were limited partly because the OECD predicted that UK growth would be just 0.4% in 2024 making it the slowest growing G-7 economy.

USDJPY plunged from 157.99 to 153.03 just before NY markets closed yesterday due to unconfirmed (but very likely) Bank of Japan intervention. USDJPY is supported by 10-year US Treasury yield which is steady at 4.61%.

AUDUSD inched higher in a 0.6515-0.6550 band due to broad US dollar weakness, but traders ignored Australian Building Permits and Trade data.

The US releases weekly jobless claims, trade balance, and factory orders. Canada’s trade data is also on tap.



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