– Soaring Canadian unemployment rate sinks Loonie,
– Bank of Canada expected to cut rates by 50 bps on Wednesday.
– US dollar trading with a bid but off its best levels.
USDCAD: open 1.4135, overnight range,1.4133-1.4175, close 1.4159, WTI $67.94, Gold, $2658.06
The Canadian dollar plunged on Friday, and it is nursing those losses today. USDCAD jumped sharply after the Canadian Labour Force Survey data was released, rising from 1.4048 to 1.4165, then ticked even higher overnight before retreating.
Canada’s unemployment rate climbed to 6.8% from 6.5%, attributed to challenges stemming from immigration policies. While the labor force expanded by 138,000, job creation lagged with only 50,500 new positions, 45,000 of which were in the public sector. This shift prompted many analysts to revise expectations for the Bank of Canada’s rate cut, increasing forecasts to 50 basis points from 25 basis points for Wednesday.
At the same time, the US labor market showed resilience, adding 227,000 jobs in nonfarm payrolls, with hourly wages increasing by 0.4%. The unemployment rate saw only a slight uptick to 4.2% from 4.1%. This data supports the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve on December 18. Meanwhile, the CAD/US 10-year interest rate spread widened significantly from 107.5 to 118.6.
Oil prices saw modest gains following reports of Syrian leader Bashar Assad fleeing as rebel forces advanced on Damascus. Assad’s appeals for help from allies Russia and Iran went unanswered, with both nations wary of further entanglements. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose slightly from $67.00 to $68.28.
This morning, the US dollar has retained its strength against major currencies, buoyed by robust economic data although it has retreated slightly from last week’s highs. A stronger-than-anticipated Core CPI print on Wednesday may make it more difficult for the Fed’s easing plans.
EURUSD traded within a 1.0532-1.0586 band, with markets awaiting Thursday’s European Central Bank decision. The ECB is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points, though traders are concerned about the possibility of a dovish tone from President Christine Lagarde.
GBPUSD followed EURUSD’s movement, trading between 1.2717 and 1.2784. Technical indicators suggest a bullish outlook above 1.2720.
USDJPY bounced between 149.59 and 150.57, mirroring Friday’s trading range. The yen initially gained on safe-haven demand following geopolitical developments in Syria and comments from China hinting at monetary policy easing. However, the gains were short-lived, with the US dollar regaining momentum.
AUDUSD erased losses incurred after the Nonfarm Payrolls report, rallying from 0.6380 to 0.6451. This recovery followed assurances from Chinese officials of upcoming policy measures to stimulate economic growth, raising hopes for increased demand for Australian exports.
There are no Canadian or US economic reports today.
